GACHAGUA IMPEACHMENT

The impeachment of Rigathe Gachagua, the justification of it notwithstanding, is part of Ruto's strategy to consolidate and centralize all power, and eliminate all forms of dissent and accountability. The GenZ protests gave him an opportunity to solve the Raila problem. And because Raila had self interests in the AU Commission candidature, absorbing his men in government was a deal too good. He got both the Presidential support and positions to kill disquiet in ODM. It also solved part of the 2027 Ruto election strategy, which was basically: if Central Kenya refuses to support me in 2027, I need to secure the Rift Valley + Western + Nyanza + Coast vote. He grabbed the opportunity and secured both the Nyanza and Coast support by incorporating ODM's core leadership in government. 

In Central, Ruto's strategy before elections was to recruit the best Uhuru and Raila attack dogs, but after elections the strategy changed to preventing the emergence of a single Kingpin. Rigathe was awarded the DP position because he was the fiercest attack dog and unashamed mobilizer on the basis of tribe. But after elections, Ruto moved to clip his wings to prevent him from becoming Uhuru's successor in murima. He did this by appointing key central noisemakers in powerful cabinet positions, effectively giving them a pot of corruption and legitimate power to build their own spheres of influence. Then he pulled the rug under Rigathe's feet by reassigning powerful responsibilities from the DP's office to Musalia Mudavadi, who became the real number two in the political infrastructure. 

He knew how Rigathe would react. The same nusu mkate playbook. Rigathe took the bait and continued with his intransigence. Meanwhile, the poisoned chalice had been sown in murima and they took it upon themselves to beat up their brother and cut him down to size. They did this by advancing their own self-interests and ambitions of being the tribal kingpin and the President's eyes on the region.

I don't think Ruto planned to cut Rigathe completely through impeachment, but when the opportunity presented itself, he took it with the gusto of a master political strategist and gave Rigathe enough space to stew himself in his own soup. He can decide to save him via senate or the courts (since we all know just how independent our institutions are) and win Rigathe's complete submission, but its an unnecessary bet on the future. There are enough kingpin aspirants and each of them is hungry to be the president's point man in Central. 

Rigathe can save his political future by resigning today, and start the real fight against Ruto.

If Rigathe is impeached at the Senate, Ruto may play two cards. One card can be to bring back Central in the fold by appointing another DP from the region as a way of saying that "I have not betrayed you, the person you gave me failed you but I have kept the promise and brought back the seat to your land." He can do this and risk losing the other electoral building blocks he has been consolidating. The other option is to go for Kalonzo and grab the Eastern block in the name of national unity and broad-based government. The other option would be to reward the ODM side, again, for carrying out the necessary work. If he does that, Ruto would have succeeded in centralizing power much like the Moi regime. A dictatorship by all means necessary. He will run roughshod on Kenyans like nonsense.